Tuesday Night Outlook
Text From The RACES Tuesday Night Net:
High temperatures will be in the low to mid-60’s through Saturday. Things will warm up on Sunday, with highs in the mid- to upper 70’s. It looks like we’ll see similar temperatures for the beginning of next week.
We’re looking at a spell of dry weather for this week. Wednesday through Friday will remain partly cloudy. Skies will clear Friday night, bringing mostly sunny skies in for the weekend. Things will cloud up again Sunday night to partly cloudy for the first few days of next week.
Detailed Forecast Discussion:
Current satellite, profiler, and surface observation trends support short term model solutions in pushing the shortwave axis east of the area this evening, with a surface cold front sinking through the County Warning Area by 1:00 AM. Surface high pressure then spreads across Ontario and the northern Lakes later tonight bringing with it cooler dry weather, while the front continues to sag and stall out along the Ohio River.
Some question exists as to the evolution of the closed/cutoff upper low now spinning over Oklahoma and the southern Plains by mid-week. Models bring the weakening mid-level circulation slowly northeast through Missouri. The NAM is notably farther north than other models with the precipitation development Wednesday night through Friday in the elevated baroclinic zone across Illinois and Indiana, while the GFS and GEM focus the precipitation south of the forecast area during this time. In collaboration with other sources, the forecast has adopted a blended approach and will maintain the possibility of precipitation late Wednesday night into Friday for the southern portion of the County Warning Area. This seems appropriate given the weakening upper support and the dry stable cool low level flow off the Lakes into the northern parts of the County Warning Area.
In the longer range, it appears that an omega blocking pattern will evolve with an upper ridge strengthening over the Mississippi Valley and the western Lakes late in the period. This sets up return flow and warmer temperatures. The forecast high temperatures were bumped up higher than the forecast guidance for this period, with the collaborated HPC numbers looking good in the extended portion. Energy from the western trough lifts through the Plains and upper Midwest late in the weekend, though it appears the highest precipitation potential remains northwest of the area at the moment.
