Karen, Melissa and ?
9-29-07 752 PM
Melissa is so far out in the Atlantic, I’m not even going to waist time talking about her. Now Karen is a very interesting story. Wed, the 5 day outlook showed Karen turning to the northwest. On Fri, Karen was to survive the shear, slip under the trough and turn west after 4 days. Today, Karen is not expected to survive 24 hours before turning into a plane old low. I don’t get it. The”Crazy Uncle”, a term not coined by me is the Canadian model. The Canadian has been rock solid on Karen surving the shear, slipping under the trough north of her and moving west. By the way, yesterday’s forecast was the through north was not strong enough to grap Karen as a storm with 35 knot winds. Today, she is a depression and is not expected to survive. When a storm weakens, the interaction is less giving it more chance to escape. Then the NOGAPS has now locked on to the chance that Karen will survive and begin turning toward the west in 4 days. Im confused, are you? I could be all wet on this but I want to wait 72 hours before giving up. The idea that Karen has survived days of 40 knot shear is amazing in itself. Yes, the center is beginning to stretch out. However, the last satellite shows renewed convection back near the center. We have been playing around with this idea for about a week and all I’ve have heard is Karen won’t make it, Karen won’t make. Yet, she’s still there. Let’s assume the “Crazy Uncle” and the NOGAPS are right, what happens? The ridge builds back toward the west over the open Atlantic. Karen returns to a depression and, game on. We then will have a major problem for Florida or Florida and the gulf. Florida right around the early part of the week of the 8th and then the gulf coast mid week. Hmm, interesting, a police chiefs conference is going on in New Orleans that week. I’m also keeping one eye on the Atlantic coast for a possible sub or pure tropical depression early next week.
