Special Arctic Weather Post -7PM (02-02-07)
Is it finally here? The actual answer is no. You would never know it by the current temperature of 6 above. Overnight, some warm air advection will roll into the area ahead of the arctic front. Yes, that’s right, the arctic front has not yet passed. This warm air will bring high clouds into the area overnight and will help keep the bottom from falling out of the thermometer. It will also bring some snow tomorrow morning and into the early afternoon. Temperatures will be around 4 at midnight, maybe a few sub-zeros in the valleys, and rise to 8 early morning. With snow ratios at 25 to 1 or better, should be able to squeeze out about an inch into the early afternoon. Then the front passes and the bottom falls. This is the arctic air we’ve been talking about for the last 6 weeks, It just took longer to get here. Temps will fall during the day to about 3 by sunset on strong northwest winds. Wind Chill Advisories will be issued. Some clearing skies Saturday night as temps fall to -6 in the southeast to -10 northwest with wind chills to -30. Temps will rise on Sunday only to about 3 southeast and -1 northwest over the heavier snowcover. Sunday night into Tuesday morning will be the worst. By Monday morning temps could fall to -9 southeast and some to -14 in the Fox Valley. Monday is no bargain as temps may stay below zero all day and again to double digit below zero lows Monday night. It is indeed possible that when temps go below zero tomorrow evening, there might be a couple of places that don’t see above zero until Tuesday. Temps will likely not see 10 or more until Wednesday with highs about 14 and 19 Thursday. Then another arctic front should take us back to below zero nights on Thursday and Friday. This weekend will likely be the coldest weather of the winter as well as the coldest since 1996. This pattern will likely be around until after the 15th. Over the next 2 weeks, temps will average about 15 to 20 degrees below average. After that, I expect we will get into a snowier pattern. All you snow lovers will be rewarded, I believe. 10-20″ of snow for the balance of winter is in order. Here are some interesting numbers I have put together with the probabilites of how cold it could get.
Saturday Morning Low
0 to 4 (99%); -1 to -5 (20%)
Saturday’s High
0 to +4 (99%); 5 to 9 (80%); 10 to 14 (30%)
Sunday’s Morning Low
-1 to -5 (80%); -6 to -10 (60%); -11 to -15 (40%); -16 to -20 (20%)
Sunday High
-5 to -1 (99%); 0 to 4 (70%); 5 to 9 (30%)
Monday Morning Low
-1 to -5 (99%); -6 to -10 (70%); -11 to -15 (40%); -16 to -20 (20%)
Monday High
-5 to -1 (99%); 0 to 4 (80%); 5 to 9 (20%)
Tuesday Morning Low
-1 to -5 (99%); -6 to -10 (60%); -11 to -15 (20%).
Tuesday High
-5 to -1 (99%); 0 to 4 (80%); 5 to 9 (60%); 10 to 14 (30%).
Bruce
