Bruce Becker [N9VID]

Needed to make a few corrections. They are in bold lettering.

10-07-07  1520

I thought I would talk about this before all of the global warming guys and gals get bent out of shape. First, just so I don’t get any static, yes, there is global warming. Yes, humans are causing some of it. Yes, It’s a natural process the earth is currently in. No, you can’t stop global warming. Yes, you should work on reducing it. No, humans are NOT 100% responsible. I don’t care what the data shows. You can’t tell me that data over the last 30 years confirms it. The earth is 4 billion years old. Political?, talk for another time. It’s like the ozone hole over Antartica. We’ve only been measuring it since 1968. How do we know it hasn’t been there since 1968 B.C. Yes, we are in a increased cycle for hurricanes. No, it is not all global warming. I believe that about covers it.

Now, are 80’s really that unusual in October. The answer is NO. In the last 49 years, there have been 64 days over 80 from the 1st to the 15th and 19 days from the 16th to the 31st. Even 2 in November. Of the 64 days, 17 of them were over 85. So statistically, October produces 1.3 days per year over 80 and 1 day over 85 every 3 years based on 49 years a data.

Also, during these 80’s there were 9 times were 80 or above occurred 3 straight days, 3 times of 4 in a row and in 1963 there was 5 in a row not including 4 out 5 from the 22nd to the 26th.  Now that’s late. It’s also interesting that the year with the most 90 degree days, 47 in 1988, did not have an 80 degree day in October.

Now hears the real blast. In the past 27 years, since 1980, there have been 17 days over 80 in October. That’s 0.6 per year.  In the previous 22 years, back to 1959, there were 47 days. That’s right 47 days. 2.1 per year. Over 200% more likely. Remember all the talk back in the 70’s and how we will handle the next ice age. Hmmm. Food for thought.

Oh, I almost forgot.  In 1963, October had 13 days over 80. Unbelievable. The difference in this October 80’s is the 70 degree dew point which are not nearly as common. Only 4 times since 1959 has the low temperature been 70 or higher in October.  By the way, today marks the latest 90 degree day on record in, you guessed it 1963, 94 degrees. We would need to make 90 degrees tomorrow for it to classify as warmest for so late in the year since 1959. There was an 89 on the 14th in 1975.

Notable records that could be broken.

This mornings 69 degree low missed the warmest minimum for the date. The record, 70 in 1879.

Sunday’s record high is 86 in 1963. It’s possible

Sunday mornings record high minimum is 66 in 1914. We will break this. 

Monday morning record high minimum is 68 in 1879. Don’t think we’ll break that, not because of the morning low, but because of the expected t-storms during the day.

A word about the pattern. A break in the current pattern comes mid week. Temps will get down to more average readings but what’s left of this warm pattern will come back from about the 16th to the 25th.

After that, the party is over. In fact, Novemeber looks to be a below average month.

I describe Indian Summer as one or more days at 70 or higher after the first freeze.

I regret to inform you. There will be no Indian Summer this year.