Bruce Becker [N9VID]

18th Anniversary of Plainfield

Becker Bruce — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 14:19:13 +0000

Today marks the 18th anniversary since, what is the most powerful tornado in the month of August, if not the strongest tornado ever in Chicago. It is a reminder that tornadoes don’t just occur in the spring. The height of a Chicago tornado season is generally from around April 25th until June 5th. A second season, which is only around 30 % of the spring season, runs from around August 15th to September 25th. As Plainfield taught us, just because it’s only 1/3 as likely, doesn’t mean it can’t happen. As you can see, we are in the second season. Stay alert as strong thunderstorms can and do produce tornadoes without warning.

Global Warning? Is it Real or Not

Becker Bruce — Fri, 13 Jun 2008 22:57:43 +0000

Many months ago, I promised all of you a number of writings on global warming, Truth or Scam.

Before I get started, I think you need to read a great article written by a former employer of mine, John Coleman.

For those of you not familiar with John, he was and still is a top meteorologist in the field. I had the pleasure of working for John at WLS-TV in the late 1970’s and then transformed to the national network with Good Morning America. I started out as an observer years earlier and was recruted by John after another great forecaster, John Milan who has now worked in the Milwaukee area for over 30 years, moved from WLS-TV to Good Morning America. After John Milan went to Milwaukee in 1977, I moved over to the national network. It was one of the most educational experience of my life with one of the sharpest individuals I have ever had the pleasure of meeting.

The title is, “Global Warming and the Price of Gasoline”

You can find it at the following URL. While your there, check out some of John’s other writings.

http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/19842304.html

Accumulating Snow Over? Probably. But The Pattern Remains The Same.

Becker Bruce — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 16:50:51 +0000

Well, after a welcome period of spring weather, I must remind everyone, the pattern is relatively unchanged. A blocking pattern remains over Greenland and shall for about 10-14 more days which is fortuneate. Why are we fortunate you ask? The blocking keeps the storm track firmly south. Now there are occasional northward storms just like any other pattern. The difference, northward track storms are fighting the climatological trend. So when they do go north, it really feels like spring. The only thing keeping us from continuing onslaught of snowstorms is the fact it is April. The point of fortuneate, severe weather remains, for the most part, south. That really doesn’t mean much considering are real severe weather season doesn’t go into high gear until the end of April. Which, by the way, corresonds to the break in the blocking pattern. So get ready for a robust severe waether season later this month and into May. I don’t think it will last more then 4-5 weeks as summer generally takes hold earlier in strong La Nina patterns. One problem still exists. La Nina is not breaking down as fast as I thought. If this continues, we could be in for a long, cool, wet and severe weather type spring and will need to rethink the prospects for a hot summer.

So, You Thought It Was Over.

Becker Bruce — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 03:00:01 +0000

Well, not surprising for a La Nina winter. Major snow threatens the area in mid March. Now, let’s put big snows in perspective. Over half of all major snows (8″ or more) occur after Febuary 1st. Many of them in March. I checked and found the last 6″ or more snowfall occurred on March 21 and 22nd, 1992, also a La Nina winter. So, it’s been a while. Now, let’s deal with the cold. I felt, like you, it was darn cold. But, looking at the data, it really hasn’t been that cold. What’s the catch? This month has been so cloudy, like the last three, night time temperatures have been above average. So when you add it all together, March is only 1.9 degrees below average. However, we have yet to make 60 degrees this month. Now, even though it’s only the 19th, there are no signs of any 60 degree weather until April. I figured this was probably not to unusual. So I checked. Boy, was I wrong. There have been only 11 March’s in the last 80 years that didn’t make 60 degrees. That’s 14%. I went back into the previous five times this has happened, 2001, 1984, 1980, 1970 and 1965. All were La Nina’s except 1984, which was an El Nino. So on the surface, it seems La Nina has something to do with it.

And The Beat Goes On

Becker Bruce — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 21:12:06 +0000

I was hoping by this time I had some good news to tell you. Actually, I guess there is. The last two storm systems have stayed far enough south to keep us out of the snow and rain. The next storm early this week threatens rain but it looks like the heaviest will stay south. The next storm we need to get away from is the one coming for the weekend . This one is a bit more touchy. The pattern has been taking the storm systems further south over the last 10 days. However, the trade off is consistant NE winds and you know what that means. Cooler near the lake season has begun. The overall pattern doesn’t appear to have much in the way of changes over the next 2 weeks. So even though the average high temps will reach 55 by the end of the month, temps will likely remain and average of 4-8 degrees below. Even looking out 3 weeks, the pattern remains progressive. The average first 70 degree temp over the last 30 years is March 23rd and the lastest in the last 30 years is April 24th. So, even though it’s cold, it’s not all that uncommon. Is the snow over? Records show a 32% chance of a 4″ or more snowfall from this point forward. There have been 16 in the last 50 years including 5 of 8″ or more.

March ? Spring A Long Way Off

Becker Bruce — Sun, 09 Mar 2008 20:33:19 +0000

As we discussed in the last posting, it looked as if the expected break in the winter pattern after the 13th was not going to occur. Well, it seems even more apparent now. The last 2 weeks of March are likely to be like the wild west. Lots of low pressures shooting up the Ohio valley threatening snow. Lots of unwanted gansters riding in from Canada with cold air we are tired of and then there is always the Gary Cooper type that stays behind and thinks he can take them all on. We can only wait until the end of the movie to see who wins. Hopefully, we can break out into a general spring pattern in April. Of course, that’s what I said about late March. Oh, by the way. Many La Nina winters have been followed by warmer summers, or should I say hot, real hot.

SPRING 2008, OH BOY !!

Becker Bruce — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 03:55:34 +0000

First, let’s talk about March. About one week ago, it looked like the winter pattern would break around the 13th of the month. Now, it would be lucky if it breaks by the end of the month. Global patterns appear to indicate this pattern will continue through the month. This would likely include t-storms, warm weather, cold weather and snowstorms. It’s going to be a wild month. The last two weeks of the month could be the most fun if you like this kind of stuff. It’s spring against winter, sort of like going to a fight and a hockey game breaks out. So the bottom line on spring, cold beginning, warm end and lots of action in between. La Nina springs tend to be active with severe weather. Temps will likely end up about 1-2 degrees above average and precip will probably be 25-50% above average.

WINTER 2007-8 STATS

Becker Bruce — Sat, 01 Mar 2008 18:48:40 +0000

March 1st is the official beginning of meteorological spring. The statistics for DEC-JAN-FEB are

Average temperature 24.8 degree (0.6 degrees below average)

Precipitation 8.93 inches (3.05 inches above average)

Snowfall 52.1 inches (25.8 inches above average) Season Total Feb 29th - 52.4 inches.

Should O’Hare reach 60, it would be only the 7th time in 135 years of records.

Season snowfall currently ranks as 21st snowest and the largest amount since 1981

Here is the breakdown of highs and lows

High Low

60’s 2 0

50’s 3 1

40’s 12 1

30’s 39 12

20’s 26 31

10’s 8 21

Single 1 18

Below Zero 0 7

February was 0.4 degrees colder than January

Winter 2007-2008 was the 72 warmest or 63 coolest on record

Here are some unofficial snow totals in and around Lake county.

Antioch: 80

Arlington Heights: 77

Barrington: 64

Chicago O’Hare: 52 Record is 89.6

DeKalb: 51

Elgin: 50

Gurnee: 65

Harvard: 64

Kankakee: 16

Kenosha, Wis.: 66

Libertyville: 68

Lindenhurst: 71

Madison, Wis.: 91 All Time Record

McHenry: 56

Milwaukee: 80 Record is 109

Naperville: 59

Northbrook: 57

Rockford: 66

Roselle: 57

Vernon Hills: 69

Woodstock: 75

It is likely that Lake County snowfall ranks 3rd snowiest.

March and Spring? Don’t bet on it.

Becker Bruce — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 16:16:37 +0000

Well, it’s been a while since I’ve been here. The development of a year round skywarn program and the uncontrolable winter weather has made it difficult to sit down and have a compelling thought. But, here I am. A lull in the action, although, not for long. By the way, I have not forgotten about the series and global climate I promised. I hope to get to it during the off season. Offseason you say. Unfortuneatly, when we started working on the hazard levels, we accidently fell into a year round skywarn program. Many have asked when we were going to do a winter weather skywarn. Little did we know this work would not only cover winter but could be used all year. We also never thought the development would occur in the snowiest winter in 27 years. We look forward to the winter season as our resting time from all the severe weather. Now it appears the summer season will be our relaxing period. I probably should not have made that comment as typical La Nina patterns lead to a busy spring severe weather season, especially in April, but enough of that. March is usually associated with spring and warmer weather. Well, it will probably still happen. The average first 70 degree day over the last 20 years is March 20th and the first 80 on April 15th. But it will likely be a wild March with occasional warmth follow by occasion snow storms and cold weather. Although the chances of anymore subzero mornings from this point forward is about 5%. The last one was in March 2002. As of now, there has been 68″ in Antioch, 62″ in Mudelein and 51″ here in Northbrook. Would not be surprised to see another 12 - 18″ added to that by the end of the winter. Now if we don’t get it, don’t come screaming at me,”You said we were going to get more snow”. March is a stange month. You can have all the storm systems coming into the right place and get all rain and then you could get all snow. So I guess a chicken factor prediction would be 2- 22″. The wild pattern of storms hitting the west coast and roaring across the plains is still working. Don’t see that changing for another 3 weeks. So if your wondering when this will all end, watch the storms on the west coast. If there aren’t any for 10 days or more, ahhhhhhhhhhh, spring can’t be far away.

Blogs Will Return Soon

Becker Bruce — Sat, 12 Jan 2008 17:07:37 +0000