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Next update is scheduled by 08:00 UTC.
ACUS02 KWNS 091713
SWODY2
SPC AC 091710
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST FRI JAN 09 2009
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ELONGATED/SHEARED POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS
WEST OF THE ROCKIES. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY WILL
BE FOCUSED ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS /JUST BELOW 850 MB AS SAMPLED PER 12Z
BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI OBSERVED RAOBS/ WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO BE PREVALENT IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR EARLY
SATURDAY. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL
LIKELY FOCUS TSTM POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN LA AND MS
INTO SOUTHERN AL/FL PANHANDLE THROUGH PEAK HEATING. IN SPITE OF
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND VERY STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
/50-85 KT AT 500 MB/...THE POSITIVE-TILT/SHEARING NATURE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH IS NOT SUGGESTIVE OF AN OVERLY ORGANIZED/APPRECIABLE
SEVERE RISK. GIVEN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE TROUGH...A MID LEVEL
WARM LAYER/POOR LAPSE RATES ARE REFLECTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...FURTHER SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE VIGOR WILL TEND TO BE
LIMITED ON SATURDAY. NEVERTHELESS...VERY STRONG SHEAR AND A MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS/WEAK BUOYANCY /SBCAPE UP TO 500-1000 J PER KG/
WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A
TORNADO MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
..GUYER.. 01/09/2009
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